Government Shut Down

The government shut down is bad mmmkay? This is one of the examples as to why I'm glad my wife didn't end up with a job at either a government research lab, government agency, university or any other place that relies on public funds to keep it's doors open. That's a lot of places. Between the sequestration and this shutdown, the US has turned into a horrible place for the sciences. However, it's alright for us to keep the NSA up and running, but not the people that watch the watchmen. Basically, our government has different priories than most Americans, which of course is no surprise - well at least different from myself. Losing funding for science is a huge blow, especially the fact that they couldn't continue to speak or publish any papers. It's disconcerting because our scientific research is what allows the US to stay ahead of the rest of the world in our economic output. The results of scientific funding from the '60s essentially gave rise to everything we're doing on the internet. The funding from ARPA that lead to ARPAnet and then the internet, inadvertently lead to the great work I mentioned in my review of Dealers of Lightning. Many of the members of the team at Xerox were funded by ARPA during their PhD's, their research at various universities, and in some cases even startups. This one government expenditure had massive positive impact in the one area of our economy that's going gang busters.

So what's going on with this shutdown? As this article points out the House did pass a budget, which is where all budget must start, however, the Senate didn't pass it and countered with their own budget, which happens fairly often. This leads to negotiation between the two chambers in Congress. The problem that we're experiencing in this case is that the "don't match" portion happens to be Obamacare. The House did not fund Obamacare at all, while the Senate naturally did (being held by the Democrats). This required that the House and Senate come together to reconcile their differences, which aren't possible to reconcile with everyone. Which is the Speaker's problem right now. Almost a week ago, there were rumored to be enough votes in the House to pass the Senate version of the budget - as Republicans were defecting to support the Democrats. The House refused to allow a vote to be called. Bills that don't have a chance to pass get votes all the time (many people have pointed out Obamacare repeal is a key example of that). So, I think that the article I linked above is a bit disingenuous either intentionally or is just intellectually dishonest. The author clearly knows what people mean by saying "law of the land." It means that as we have obligation within the law we need to pay them. The House, Senate, President, and Supreme Court weighed in and it's a legal bill. The House is unable to repeal it through legislative methods so created a plan to shutdown the government to stop the bill from taking effect - to defund the bill and "repeal" it that way. That's what they are doing and why.

The reasons for why the Republicans believe this would work is beautifully laid out in an argument using Game Theory on the Harvard Business Review: every other time brinkmanship was used, it worked. Go with the strategy until it doesn't work any more. The White House figured this out too and now cannot allow it to continue. Otherwise, the above author would be correct, the best way to kill a bill you don't like that passed through everything is to simply defund it later or shutdown the government until the other people meet your demands. Toss some spin on their to make it seem like the other side is unreasonable and boom, you've gotten your way again.

The problem with brinkmanship is that it's a zero sum game and if the government defaults, it's going to be terrible for everyone. The bulk of US voters blame the republicans, this could cause massive damage to even safe areas for the republicans. Are there better ways to deal with Obamacare? Yes, if it's as awful as the Republicans think it is, use that to get everyone out of office that voted for it. Run on that plank and push it to the hilt. If it kills jobs, causes people to go bankrupt use all that to get the Democrats out of office. Then once a majority is secured repeal the law. That's how government should work. Sure you can work to undermine the law while you're at it, but if you want to get rid of it, do it with votes so it's clear the people have spoken. This shut down is bad for everyone. Let's end it, figure out how to address long term debt, improve the job market, pay for more science, and address the structural problems we have as a nation. If Obamacare is a bad thing, we'll figure it out really quick and then deal with that fall out. We need leaders now, not children.

Stuxnet, Flame and security

First of all, I'd like to thank all my readers, I've had over 10,000 views in my first year of blogging. That's amazing and is so many more views than I expected to ever have. Thank you for making it well worth my time to blog!

Recently a friend of my asked me to comment about the latest cyber attack, Flame, uncovered by Kaspersky, a Russian security firm. It's still not entirely certain who unleashed the attack, but at the time I argued that it could have been Israel acting alone as they have a very capable tech sector. They put out high quality software, they have security experts and they have some serious R&D from US companies like MS and Intel.

Flame targeted Iranian computer systems, very much like Stuxnet did. At the time, it was unclear who released Stuxnet, which attacked Iranian centrifuges. It could have very easily been Israel acting alone or with some help from the US. Being a realist I fully expected the US to be involved, however I did not expect Obama to have issued the order himself. Based on history it is equally likely that Flame was initiated by the US as well.

Flame targeted data being sent over the internet such as PDF, Office and AutoCAD data and did not actively attack anything like Stuxnet did, according to Kaspersky. However, this doesn't mean that it's not being used by a spy agency. It's also interesting to note that the infected computers are all outside of the US, which indicates that it could very easily be a US spy agency as they are not usually allowed to spy on US citizens.

These two programs leave me with a great deal of concern, because "the Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage coming from another country can constitute an act of war, a finding that for the first time opens the door for the U.S. to respond using traditional military force." Does this mean that if Iran responded with military force that our own Pentagon would argue that they were justified? I don't think they would, but essentially they already have.

Aside from the risks of war it also gives greater leverage for a regime like Iran's to argue for a more suppressed internet. They can now without any worry claim that they are doing it for national security. They are doing it for that reason, their centrifuges have been attacked (Stuxnet) and their people are being spied on (Flame). In addition other repressive regimes will likely use Flame as justification as a crack down on the internet. There may also be repercussions for Microsoft as Flame exploited a weakness within their auto update.

This also raises other concerns about what other types of cyber programs Obama has given the OK to. As he is the most technically savvy president we've had since the rise of the Internet, I think he fully understands the choices he is making. With Bush it may have been argued that he didn't really understand as well what he was approving as he doesn't have an in depth knowledge of how people use the internet and how systems interact with technology. He also wouldn't have a good understanding of how viruses like this could turn against their creators. In this case Obama should. He should know that once in the wild a worm can mutate in a way that could turn against the people that released it and that we could destroy ourselves.

I think that these actions will weaken our position in any negotiations with Iran and possibly other countries that we have pushed for a more open internet. They could, rightly perhaps, argue that we only want the internet open, so it's easier for us to infiltrate.

I don't believe that's the reason. I believe that the internet is the an amazing tool that has improved people's condition to at least some extent. It has allowed for freer flowing of knowledge, but it can be used for wrong just as easily as any other media or communication tool.